When looking at your Tribe’s vulnerability, it is important to consider how often hazard events will occur in the future, because this is a long-term strategy to reduce risk. Consider if events will happen on a regular, predictable basis, but have a lower impact. Are they more scattered but are more destructive? By gauging probability, your community can be prepared for all potential events.

Climate change is not necessarily a type of hazard, but is rather a factor that may change the frequency or severity of certain natural hazards we already prepare for. Climate change can be profiled separately or may be cited as an exacerbating factor for many other hazards. It is an important consideration in mitigation planning because mitigation planning prepares communities for long-term risk reduction.

We’ll look at four different ways to address the probability in a way that incorporates future climate and weather patterns:

• Qualitative approach, using oral histories and general descriptors
• Regional data approach, looking at National or Regional data and reports
• Down-scaled data projections approach looking at micro-level climate data
• Historical analysis approach, which looks to the past to understand future probability