Lesson Overview

This lesson covers the first two steps of Risk Assessment:

• Describe your community
• Identify your hazards

The third step of risk assessment will be covered in the next lesson:

• Explain the impacts that hazards can have on the community

After completing this lesson, you should be able to:

• Differentiate between risk assessment terms.
• List the types of community assets.
• Recall methods of determining at-risk assets.
• Identify the various types of hazards.
• List parameters and approaches involved in profiling hazards.

The previous lesson described important considerations for how your Tribe can organize its planning process. Once those decisions are made, it is time to start developing the plan while following the seven-step process.

The Plan Development process involves the following steps:

1. Describe your community
• Describe the planning area, Tribal assets, and any unique characteristics of your Tribe.
2. Identify your hazards
• Figure out what natural hazards could occur in your planning area.
3. Explain impacts that hazards can have on the community
• Describe what the natural hazards could do to your people, property, and land and determine the Tribe’s biggest hazard concerns.
4. Review your current capability to mitigate the impacts
• Inventory your Tribes’ plans, policies, and programs that could be used to protect your community.
5. Develop the strategy
• Keeping in mind your risks and your capabilities, identify your Tribe’s mitigation goals and actions.
6. Develop an action plan
• Prioritize your actions and develop the details to assist with implementation.
7. Keep track of progress
• Observe and record progress in implementing your mitigation program using a defined method and schedule.

• A process used to collect information and understand how natural events will affect the Tribal community. It helps Tribes:
• Communicate vulnerabilities
• Develop mitigation priorities
• Inform decision making
• The foundation for a mitigation strategy to reduce future losses.
• The planning team conducts a risk assessment to determine the potential impacts of natural hazards on the community. The risk assessment provides the foundation for the rest of the mitigation planning process, which is focused on identifying and prioritizing actions the community can take to reduce risk of natural hazards that may affect the planning area defined during the planning process.
• Focuses on the planning area defined during the planning process.
• In addition to informing the mitigation strategy, the risk assessment can be used to establish land use and comprehensive planning priorities, and for decision making by elected officials, Tribal government departments, business enterprises, and communities that the Tribe coordinates with. There are many approaches to risk assessments depending on available data, technology, and resources. Tribal risk assessments do not need to be created using sophisticated technology, but do need to be accurate, current, and relevant.

This step involves describing the planning area, assets, and unique characteristics of your Tribe in a community profile.

This step should answer a few important questions:

• What do you want to protect?
• Who do you want to protect?
• How does your Tribe operate?

Before you can assess your risks, you need to determine and describe the planning area.

• Identify the planning area
• Describe land you maintain outside reservation boundaries
• Identify status of the lands (e.g., fee, trust, usual, and accustomed)

The planning area is not just the land area. It should include a description of the people and property that your Tribe wants to protect from the impacts of natural hazard events. Describing the Tribal community is an important part of helping the plan’s users understand the context. This section is a good place to include any unique characteristics of the population and landscape of the planning area that could factor into risk reduction decisions. For example, consider focusing on aspects of the geography and built environment that contribute to vulnerability, such as geology, land use, and development trends.

Note: If you’re working with other communities, each community must describe its respective planning area(s).

Here are the steps to the process:

• The requirement is to "include a description of the Tribal planning area" - and this at its most general means that you must describe the area are you planning for. If you don't have land or land use authority, that’s ok – just describe what area you are planning for.
• Identify the boundaries of land holdings in the Tribal planning area, including non-contiguous Tribal lands and checkerboard areas.
• Potential for these to be separated by vast distances or in multiple counties/States
• Could follow Tribal jurisdictional boundaries, reservations, or natural features
• Be mindful of multijurisdictional boundaries
• Describe any land your Tribe maintains outside the reservation boundaries. For example, if your Tribe owns land and businesses in an adjacent community, include that in the plan.
• Identify the status of the lands (e.g., fee, trust, usual, and accustomed).
• Potential exists for these to be separated by vast distances or in multiple counties/States.
• Could follow Tribal jurisdictional boundaries, reservations, or natural features.

If you’re doing a multi-jurisdictional plan, be aware of all communities – the planning area needs to be stated for each participating community.

In describing your community, think about who you want to protect. This could be aspects of either the built or physical environment.

It can also be cultural assets or historic places. When we think of “assets,” typically the first thing is monetary value, though these can be qualitative as well.

People are your most important asset. Describe the population of the Tribal planning area and Tribal membership. Consider areas where there is a higher population density of residents and workers, as well as the types of populations that may have unique vulnerabilities or be less able to respond and recover in a disaster.

Consider the following populations in the community:

• Concentrations of residents and employees during day, night, and commute hours. Populations shift throughout the day, typically based on a work commute schedule, seasonal tourist events, and school calendars. If the Tribe has a casino or other business ventures, who are its customers and employees?
   
• Types of visiting populations and locations where they are likely to congregate. Visiting populations include students, second homeowners, migrant farm workers, or visitors for special events that may be less familiar with the local environment and hazards and are not prepared to protect themselves in an event. Keep in mind the population that visits during large events, like Tribal canoe journeys on the west coast.
   
• Locations and concentrations of special needs and dependent populations. Children, the elderly, the disabled, and non-English speakers are just some of the special needs and dependent populations that may require more assistance during and following hazard events. Locations of facilities that provide necessary services (e.g., hospitals, shelters, oxygen delivery, accessible transportation, etc.) also need to be considered in terms of their vulnerability to risks.
   
• Demographics of projected population growth. This information may also be considered to avoid potential development that is subject to hazards.

It is helpful to identify the economic assets whose losses or inoperability would have severe impacts on the community and its ability to recover from a disaster. These may include primary economic sectors in the community, major employers, and commercial centers. The plan would benefit from having the dependencies between major economic assets and infrastructure assessed.

Economic assets may include:

• Major employers, both within the Tribal planning area and where many community members work (if applicable).
   
• Primary economic sectors. Consider if the economy in the planning area relies on a certain kind of economic sector, like agriculture, retail, or others.
   
• Key infrastructure that supports economic activity, like telecommunications networks.

Historical, Cultural, and Sacred Sites/Resources may include buildings, structures, objects, sacred sites, historic districts, archival storage facilities, etc. It is highly recommended that plans discuss these sites. They are important places to protect.

The planning team should consider including a discussion of assets and resources that are significant for subsistence, economic, religious/spiritual, medicinal, historical, or other values/purposes.

To show an understanding of the number and type of structures in the planning area, consider the following key components of the structure assets inventory:

• Locations and types of planned new development or redevelopment
• Existing infrastructure – roads, bridges, etc.
• Infrastructure for new development
• For infrastructure, it is important for you to describe if your Tribe owns the infrastructure or not, because mitigating impacts to it may require coordination with an outside entity.
• Planned capital improvements
• This is important because FEMA regulations require considering not only the existing built environment, but also future development.

Each participating jurisdiction could consider the following:

• Types of buildings by occupancy type, including commercial, industrial, and single- and multi-family residential
• Age and construction type of existing buildings to understand inventory
• Current building code and subdivision standards to determine whether the minimum requirements reflect the Tribe’s acceptable level of risk
• Museums, concert halls, parks, stadiums, or any asset that is important to the Tribe can be considered a cultural resource
• Existing land uses, as well as future land uses permitted by zoning and development trends
• Location, numbers, and types of structures of planned new development and redevelopment
• Existing stormwater management infrastructure and upgrades that will be necessary with any future development
• New facilities, infrastructure, annexations, and other planned capital improvements

The community can determine how much detail about community assets to provide in the plan. You may not have all of this information, and that’s okay.

Note: When a community extends infrastructure into known hazard areas, it will create greater risk.

This map illustrates existing land use. Existing structures can be seen (and potentially counted) on aerial imagery.

If the Tribe uses zoning or has defined future growth areas, the plan should include maps and/or a discussion of where future structures might be built. Are there areas of future development, or areas where utilities are going to be extended?

Note: When a community extends infrastructure into known hazard areas, it will create greater risk.

Critical facilities, such as hospitals, schools, and emergency operation centers, are specific assets of the built environment that provide services that are essential for life, safety, and economic viability. The continued operations of critical facilities during and following a disaster are key factors in the speed of recovery.

Include locations, types, value, and construction materials.

Consider where the critical facilities are located, how old they are, and value of the structure and its contents. In addition, the Planning Team may want to evaluate not only their structural integrity and content value, but also the ways in which one critical facility depends on another and the effects of an interruption of the service they provide to the community to identify vulnerabilities. Infrastructure systems are also essential for life safety and economic viability.

Many critical facilities are dependent on utility infrastructure to function.

For example, hospitals need electricity, water, and sewer systems to continue helping patients. As with critical facilities, the continued operations of infrastructure systems during and following a disaster are key factors in the severity of impacts and the speed of recovery.

Environmental assets and natural resources are important to community identity and quality of life and support the economy through agriculture, tourism, and recreation, and a variety of other ecosystem services, such as clean air and water.

Natural Environment assets may include:

• Environmental functions that reduce the magnitude of hazards, like riparian buffers or protected open spaces
• Critical habitat areas to protect
• Hunting, gathering, fishing, and/or usual and accustomed areas
• Other natural resources

The natural environment also provides protective functions that reduce the impacts of hazards and contribute to resilience. For instance, wetlands and riparian areas help absorb and attenuate flood waters, soils and landscaping contribute to stormwater management, and vegetation in the upper watershed provides erosion control and reduces runoff.

Read the Fictional Roaring River Community Profile (HB, p. 15)

Then answer this question: What assets can be identified for this community?

• Agricultural
• Independent living facility
• Fire and Police departments
• Administrative building
• Wastewater management
• Grazing land
• Casino
• Horse ranch

This section focuses on identifying the hazards that present the most risk to the Tribal community. Every community is different and has different vulnerabilities, and your Tribal mitigation plan should reflect your unique situation and hazards. 

The focus of mitigation planning is typically natural hazards so that the most significant natural hazards and the actions get the Tribe’s maximum attention and energy. FEMA approval of the tribal hazard mitigation plan is based on a review of natural hazards only. You may choose to add additional hazards that impact your Tribal area.

Here are some examples of the natural hazards:

• Earthquake
• Flood
• Hurricane/Typhoon
• Tornado
• Tsunami
• Volcanic eruption
• Winter storm

There are many sources of hazard information available to assist the planning team. A few data sources include:

• Interview the planning team and stakeholders about which hazards pose risks to the planning area and should be described in the mitigation plan.
• Consider interviewing elders and other community members.
• Document the disaster declaration history of the planning area.
• Review existing studies, reports, and plans related to flooding, wildfire, geological, and other hazards.
• Review the State hazard mitigation plan and the hazard mitigation plans of adjacent jurisdictions. These plans may provide insight to already-identified hazards in the planning area.
• State and Federal agencies are also good sources for hazard-related information. For example, the USGS studies landslides and earthquakes; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers maintains information on ice jams, dams, and levees; and NOAA is an excellent source of severe weather and climatic information.
• Contact colleges or universities that have hazard-related academic programs or extension services.
• Consult local resources such as the newspaper, chamber of commerce, local historical society, and other resources with records of past occurrences.
• Base Level Engineering data is being produced over large swaths of the United States that are at risk to floods.

For plan updates, reference previously identified hazards and determine if they are still fitting. Include sources of information and lists of references in the plan.

You should also think about secondary hazards. Secondary hazards can lead to cascading effects, and their impacts need to be considered as part of the risk assessment process.

• Underwater earthquakes can produce tsunamis
• Earthquakes and floods can lead to fires and landslides
• Hurricanes include flooding and wind hazards
• Wildfires, when followed by rain, can produce mudslides and devastating flooding
• Severe storms can include high winds, lightning, and heavy rains
• Dam and levee failure can be caused by heavy rains, and can cause catastrophic flooding 

Location means the geographic areas in the Tribal planning area that are affected by the hazard. For many hazards, maps are the best way to illustrate location. However, location may be described in other formats. For example, if a geographically specific location cannot be identified for a hazard, such as tornadoes, the plan may state that the entire Tribal planning area is equally at risk of that hazard.

Maps are the best way to illustrate location for many hazards. The locations that could be affected by a hazard may be described in a narrative or shown on maps in the plan. It can sometimes be helpful to describe low- and high-risk areas, but be sure to define what you mean if you use those terms.

The Tribal planning area includes the lands upon which the Tribal government is authorized to govern, develop, or regulate. These lands may include, but are not limited to, lands within the Reservation and off-Reservation lands owned by, managed by, or held in trust for the Tribal government, allotted trust land, and fee land. These lands may be either contiguous or non-contiguous, and for multi-jurisdictional planning may include other Tribes or non-Tribal jurisdictions.

This map is part of a Flood Insurance Rate Map showing the location of the 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain in Moab, Utah.

Note that a flood hazard is a hazard affecting a specific location within the planning area which is different than hazards such as storms that could affect the entire planning area. Similarly, wildfires can happen in identified areas. USGS provides maps on the probability of ground shaking in certain places based on specific scenarios.

Extent is the anticipated severity and/or magnitude of a hazard.

• The best measure or discussion of extent will depend on individual hazards. Measures of strength include depth of flooding, wind speed, peak ground acceleration due to an earthquake, etc.
   
• Use nationally recognized scales when possible to measure a hazard event’s strength (ex: Fujita for Tornadoes, Mercalli for Earthquakes, Saffir-Simpson for Hurricanes, etc.).
   
• Speed of onset is a component of extent because the greater the lead time, the more time there is to prepare and the smaller the potential severity of the extent.
   
• With respect to duration, the longer the duration of an event, the greater the extent. Flooding that peaks and retreats in a matter of hours is typically less damaging than flooding of similar depth that remains in place for days.

Many plans fail to make the distinction between extent and impact and require revision. This is because describing the extent of a hazard is NOT the same as describing potential impacts on a community.

Extent defines the characteristics of the hazard regardless of the people and property it affects.

• Includes the potential magnitude/severity of a hazard
• Think of the Enhanced Fujita Scale or the Richter Scale

In other words, try to imagine how bad the hazard itself can get.

Impact means the consequence or effect of the hazard on the Tribal government and its assets. Assets are determined by the Tribal government and may include, for example, people, structures, facilities, systems, populations or other community assets, as defined by the Tribe, that are susceptible to damage and loss from hazard events. Assets may also include cultural sites and capabilities and/or activities that have value to the Tribal government. Impacts could be described by referencing historical disaster impacts and/or an estimate of potential future losses.

• Injuries and deaths
• Percent of property damaged

Compare this to the location map. The location of the floodplain differs from the anticipated flood depth shown here, where darker colors indicate deeper flood depths.

Another example of this would be earthquakes. There are different scales used for earthquakes; the higher the measurement, the more damage is anticipated during the event. A magnitude 7 earthquake is the same strength, or extent, no matter if it is in a populated or unpopulated area. It has more significant impacts in a more populated area because there is a potential for more damage.

The plan must include the history of previous hazard events and describe how each hazard has affected the Tribe in the past. This information helps estimate the likelihood of future events and predict potential impacts. When data are available, describe the extent of the event and the impacts that occurred, such as fatalities and injuries, building and infrastructure damage, and loss of services.

Examples can include:

• Dates of events
• Description of the damage that occurred
• Duration of each event
• Include Presidential Emergency and Disaster Declarations

Past events can also be mapped, like this image of previous earthquakes in Alaska.

When looking at your Tribe’s vulnerability, it is important to consider how often hazard events will occur in the future, because this is a long-term strategy to reduce risk. Consider if events will happen on a regular, predictable basis, but have a lower impact. Are they more scattered but are more destructive? By gauging probability, your community can be prepared for all potential events.

Climate change is not necessarily a type of hazard, but is rather a factor that may change the frequency or severity of certain natural hazards we already prepare for. Climate change can be profiled separately or may be cited as an exacerbating factor for many other hazards. It is an important consideration in mitigation planning because mitigation planning prepares communities for long-term risk reduction.

We’ll look at four different ways to address the probability in a way that incorporates future climate and weather patterns:

• Qualitative approach, using oral histories and general descriptors
• Regional data approach, looking at National or Regional data and reports
• Down-scaled data projections approach looking at micro-level climate data
• Historical analysis approach, which looks to the past to understand future probability

A qualitative approach can be generalized, so long as each of the descriptors is defined in terms that are meaningful to the Tribe. For example, “unlikely” could mean “not certain to occur,” or “highly likely” could be defined as “expected to occur every year.” Defining descriptors is important to keep consistency.

• Descriptions based on Tribal knowledge
• Can use general descriptors

Use National or Regional data to identify probability.

This approach uses data, reports, and models to quantify changes in frequency or probability. This is a very large-scale approach that offers general future conditions. When analyzing how climate change may affect your Tribe, this approach takes a look at how it is affecting communities across the Nation, as well as in your Region.

Look at trends affecting the Nation at large.

One example of this is the National Climate Assessment, a product that shows how the climate is changing and how it will affect the country as a whole. Characteristics of hazards changing include:

• Timing of precipitation events
• Intensity of precipitation events
• Snow falling as rain
• Height of storm surge
• Changes in the number of very warm days

There are a lot of things that could happen in the future that might change the type, location, magnitude, frequency, and impact of hazards. Future conditions are more than weather – it’s climate, population patterns, and how the land is changing.

Statistics show that the total number and cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years. Record setting hurricane seasons, brushfires, flooding, and drought conditions are all examples of how natural disasters have continued to worsen. Adapting to these conditions can help to reduce the more severe impacts of these events.

The NRI:

• Helps communities identify what hazards they are at risk of and the community’s current level of resilience.
• Provides an efficient, standardized risk assessment methodology.
• Incorporates physical and social vulnerability data to identify communities more at risk.

If you would like to learn more about planning for future conditions, please visit one of the websites listed here. These sites provide your community with the best possible data to plan for a changing world. Contact your regional Tribal liaison for more information or if you have additional questions.

• NOAA’s Digital Coast
• NOAA’s Sea Level Rise View
• NOAA’s Tide and Currents
• National Centers for Environmental Information
• US Climate Resilience Toolkit
• Contact your regional Tribal liaison

You have learned how to start the plan development process and describe how to identify at-risk community assets and hazards as they relate to risk assessment.

• Risk assessment is used to describe community assets and the hazards that might affect them.
• Assessing risk must include not only land, but also the people, economic, cultural, and physical structures in the planning area.
• Information is available publicly to identify hazards which can then be better quantified by location, extent, previous occurrences, and their probability.
• There are different ways for analyzing hazards which include qualitative, regional data, down-scaled data, and historical approaches.

In the exercise packet, use the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Worksheeet to describe the characteristics of hazards and capture information about which hazards are most significant to your planning area. Modify the list as necessary and exclude hazards that are not relevant to your Tribe. For plan updates, it can be helpful to describe if and how each characteristic has changed in the last five years.

1. Read the Roaring River Indian Hazard Identification case study. (HB., p. 19)

2. Answer these questions:

a. What three hazards exist in this community?

b. What future probability is there for each hazard?