Risk Considerations (2 of 3)
FEMA P-259, Table 3-6, provides the probability of one or more occurrences of a flood of a given recurrence interval (magnitude) within a specified number of years.
 

Recurrence Interval (Years):
10

Recurrence Interval (Years):
25

Recurrence Interval (Years):
50

Recurrence Interval (Years):
100

Recurrence Interval (Years):
500

Length of Period (Years): 1

10%

4%

2%

1%

0.2%

Length of Period (Years): 10

65%

34%

18%

10%

2%

Length of Period (Years): 20

88%

56%

33%

18%

2%

Length of Period (Years): 25

93%

64%

40%

22%

5%

Length of Period (Years): 30

96%

71%

45%

26%

6%

Length of Period (Years): 50

99+%

87%

64%

39%

10%

Length of Period (Years): 100

99.99+%

98%

87%

63%

18%

The table values represent the probabilities, expressed in percentages, of one or more occurrences of a flood of given magnitude or larger within a specified number of years. Probability (P) may be calculated for any given Length of Period (n) and Recurrence Interval (RI) using the following equation: P=[1 minus (1 minus 1 over RI)] x 100%, where RI and n are in years.